ewbc

Trillions of dollars have been introduced into the world economy since last July, when I thought it would be interesting to jump in and pick stocks prior to the carnage in the financial sector taking complete hold.

For the past eight months our government has been taking over financial institutions, absorbing debt, lowering interest rates, nationalizing some private companies, investing in others, and rebating taxes through stimulus packages to increase liquidity and spending. The Federal Reserve has essentially dropped the interest to zero.

The government was the last to announce that we are in a recession. Well, duh! However, recession or not the world is still open for business although less of it. Gold is down 30% from it's highs and oil having totally collapsed from $147 a barrel at the time of the original story to the low $30's now.

The original story was Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials -- buying into a pool of financial stocks at a time when these stocks went unloved by all.

Eight of the ten financial stocks I wrote about are down or out at this point. When I last reported, the portfolio was losing 47% but it has sunk to new lows now standing at a loss of 58.56%. This compares to a drop in the S&P 500 of 29% or half the loss.

There are many analysts suggesting that we finally have arrived at the time to invest in financial stocks. Perhaps that is true, but do you invest in the downtrodden or the blue chips?

Around the world, governments are flooding the market with new currency in order to stem the tide of bank collapses and slippery stock market slopes. They are taking over financial institutions, absorbing debt, lowering interest rates, nationalizing some private companies, investing in others, and rebating taxes through stimulus packages to increase liquidity and spending.

So far all we can say is that the world is still open for business, but it is a different world. Even gold and oil are down significantly.

In concert with world markets, the stocks in my daring (maybe fool hardy) story I posted a few months ago Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials -- buying into a pool of financial stocks at a time when the "hate 'em" factor was at a peak, or so I thought -- are down even more. I think I am turning into the web's leading glutton for punishment by posting such stories. However, while my stock ideas have taken a beating now and then, I hope my integrity has remained intact.

I took some major lumps during the collapse of Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) as I candidly posted, Chasing Value: Not -- WaMu one week later - ouch!, and I lost some money also.

Nine of the ten financial stocks I wrote about are down or out at this point. When I last reported, the portfolio was losing 4.8%, and now it is losing 47% to date, not counting dividends. Only MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is up and there are question marks about this company too.

No doubt, this week has made it more and more difficult to say anyone should buy stocks at the moment. Even in good, solid, dividend-paying companies. Many analysts and pundits have recommended investors to sell and stay away from the stock market for a while as they don't see a bottom yet, only more declines.

Others believe the bottom is near and investors shouldn't try to time it to buy good value stocks. But it seems they are fewer. It has also become a little more difficult to find stocks our bloggers call a Buy. Still there are a few:

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) -- while AMD stock did not hold up very well recently, a positive development may encourage buyers as this week spun off its manufacturing business.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) -- Apple fans have seen the stock getting pounded the past week, but today it was one of the big winners, jumping 9%. Sheldon Liber notes that "it has not traded at a P/E below it's projected growth rate in years..." Apple is also expected to announce new laptops next week, including a low-priced model to better position itself among competitors.

Costco (NASDAQ: COST) -- Costco reported decent same-store sales this week, and Steven Malls thinks that "Longer-term, Costco will do well."

Investors shuddered in horror as the market was dropping; with the Dow down 800 points in midday trading and finally closing at a better but still dismal 9,955.50, off -369.88 or -3.58%.

So, on this terrible day what if anything made a good showing of itself? Four stocks among the ones that I follow popped up.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) closed at $98.14, up 1.07, or 1.10%. Apple needs no introduction to most readers of BloggingStocks or anyone breathing almost anywhere on the planet. Although the stock appears to be a fallen star for the time being and is down 51% for the year it managed to outshine almost everything else today. Apple has not traded at a P/E below it's projected growth rate in years so the bargain hunters were obviously interested.

East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) closed at $15.69, up 0.61, or 4.05%. Some banking stocks are recovering nicely and this small California bank with business in the Asian community here and in China as well seems to be getting out from under the taint of the sector. It is one of the stocks I included in Chasing Value: Financial devastation? Still up but less. If I had to 'bank' on whether this stock is higher or lower in a years time I would say higher.

If not for the collapse of Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) this week, I would probably not have posted this saga so soon after last Monday's report. However, since I was a shareholder of WaMu and thought there was value in it when I posted Chasing Value: Are you watching WaMu? I felt it was time to take my lumps.

I cannot go on ranting and raving about the failures and deceptions of others without making sure that I am forthright and transparent myself. I did post Chasing Value: Not -- WaMu one week later - ouch! but now WaMu is toast and so is some of my money.

Since I posted Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials, the results of buying into the following pool of financial stocks at a time when the "hate 'em" factor was at a peak, with each passing day investors have found something more to hate.

The portfolio is losing 4.8% to date, not counting dividends. Some of my colleagues thought it was way too early to get back into the financial sector; seems that way now, and one read me the riot act for reporting the story so soon on MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) being up substantially.

Almost two months have passed since I posted Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials - the results of buying into the following pool of financial stocks at a time when the "hate 'em" factor was at a peak, or so I thought. Now things are even worse, much worse, and a new market bottom was reached only last week.

Trying to predict where this market will go is not possible, but there are many ways to play it. I chose to buy into a pool of financial stocks, believing the survivors would post gains that would overshadow the losers.

When I last updated this story, the pool of stocks was up 26%. Things have gotten worse, but the group is still up 13.89% plus the dividends. This is better than any of the indices, although it is much more speculative.

There was plenty of big news since the last report. While Lehman Brothers Holdings (OTC: LEHMQ) went bankrupt, MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI) made up for it by more than doubling. Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) is in survival mode supported by a Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) buyout offer. Seven stocks are up, two are down and one is gone (returns from July 29 prices):

It has been five weeks since I posted Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials. The results of buying into the following pool of financial stocks at a time when the "hate 'em" factor was at a peak has been tremendous. The over all return has has been 26.3% with eight stocks up and two down.

For investors this might have been too speculative; for traders, they are probably grinning from ear to ear. For me -- we will see where we stand next year. As one of my colleagues reminded me, this is the real test, although I think there is reason for optimism.

The leader of the pack was MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI), up 228%. In the absence of that gain the appreciation would have only been 3.5%. That beats all the indices but is not as dramatic.

• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) -- $18.45 down 63% from its 52 week high of $49.90; closed yesterday at $19.11, UP 3.57%
  
• Lehman Br Holdings (NYSE: LEH) -- $16.88 down 75% from its 52 week high of $67.73; closed yesterday at $16.13, down 4.44%
• Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) -- $26.25 down 67% from its 52 week high of $79.72; closed yesterday at $27.75, UP 5.7%.
• MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI) -- $4.92 down 93% from its 52 week high of $68.98; closed yesterday at $16.14, UP 228%.
• E*TRADE (NASDAQ: ETFC) -- $3.06 down 84% from its 52 week high of $19.39; closed yesterday at $3.25, UP 6.2.
• East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) -- $12.46 down 67% from its 52 week high of $20.88; closed yesterday at $13.01, UP 4.4%.
• Gramercy Capital (NYSE: GKK) -- $6.72 down 77% from its 52 week high of $29.45; closed yesterday at $6.80, UP 1.2%.
• Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) -- $5.88 down 72% from its 52 week high of $20.88; closed yesterday at $6.89, UP 17.18%.
• Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) -- $15.70 down 70% from its 52 week high of $53.10; closed yesterday at $16.65, UP 6%.
• Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) -- $4.43 down 89% from its 52 week high of $39.48; closed yesterday at $4.24, down 4.29%

In my original post I emphasized that you had to buy the pool for safety. During the last month, we have seen many stories about Lehman Brothers' demise or the collapse of a major bank like WaMu or Wachovia, and if that had happened the gains in MBIA would have made up for the total and complete collapse of any one of them. I have no reason to believe this is immanent. I do have reason to believe the opposite. During the last month I bought additional shares of WaMu, one of the two down stocks at $3.50 per share.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of MBI, NCT & WM.

Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 225, so I decided to peg the financial stocks I wrote about investing in as a pool. We are often accused of bragging on the good days and having memory loss on the bad so I wanted to be transparent and forthright on the downside.

To my surprise the financial stock pool is actually up 9.96% on average. Six stocks increased in value, two were down and two stocks were even money. The big winner was MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI) up over 68%!

In the same time frame the DJIA has gone from 11,397.56 to 11,431.43 (even) and the S&P has gone from 1263.2 to 1266.06 last night, for basically no change either.

The market is rebounding as I write so I expect the news is even better. Although, this pool of stocks beat the market so far in the short run, I hope to track this group for a year, or at least until Major League Baseball's spring training opens in 2009.

If you want to track the story with me the first post was Serious Money: 10 finance stocks as the market bounces. I remain stubbornly optimistic that this is a buying opportunity and investors will be sorry they did not have the courage to buy stocks when they were hated. The follow-up was Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials

The initial prices are as of July 29, 2008.

The Summer Olympics are only days away and what the Chinese had hoped would be their coming out party to celebrate all that is good, may instead become quite the opposite.

The air pollution in Beijing is so bad that even reducing automobile traffic by 50% has not helped much. China is now considering a 90% reduction according to news reports. Athletes are staying in other countries until the games begin so that they may train somewhere they can breathe. There are also reports that many athletes involved in stamina events will be forced to wear masks to protect themselves from the particulates in the air.

Now Reuters is reporting that "Some International Olympic Committee officials cut a deal to let China block sensitive websites despite promises of unrestricted access, a senior IOC official admitted on Wednesday."

So the world media will not be able to do their jobs in a manner they are accustomed to. But who are we actually referring to? Western media, of course, because half the world still limits access to information to some degree.

After the market closed last night, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounding from Monday's notable drop and ending the trading day at 11,397.56, up 266.48 (+2.39%), I posted Serious Money: 10 finance stocks as the market bounces. This is the follow-up post listing the full pool of speculative stocks that as a group I believe will beat the overall market in the next 12 months.

The prediction business is thankless and the speculative business is even worse; it is often painful. I usually refrain from this activity but today I play the contrarian in a Sir John Templeton (RIP) sort of way, jumping into the stock market's worst performing sector with both feet. I believe the market is at or near a bottom and this summer is the time to buy.

Looking for a break in the clouds, yesterday I started choosing ten stocks knowing that three or four may go to zero, a few more will survive with modest gains, and three or four will rise, not returning to their old glory soon but more than covering the ones that fail. The first four picks have been bleeding all over Wall Street for a year now and the blood-letting is not done yet.

Initially I was looking for stocks that had fallen at least 70%. After reviewing my figures, I have compromised and changed that to 63% so that I could include some of the major companies like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) that are broadly held and have strong reader interest. Prices are as of July 29, 2008.